GHACOF52 forecasts drier than normal rainfall for June to September season

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SOURCE: ICPAC

Compiled by NECJOGHA TEAM

ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA: The regional consensus climate outlook for the June to September 2019 rainfall season indicates increased likelihood of drier than normal rainfall over much of Ethiopia, south western Eritrea, South Sudan, parts of western Sudan as well as some region on the Sudan/Ethiopia border, northern and far-western Uganda, western Rwanda as well as coastal areas of Kenya and Somalia.

The Fifty Second Greater Horn of Africa Climate Forum (GHACOF52) which was held for two days in Addis Ababa has released a regional consensus climate outlook for the June to September 2019. GHACOF52 which has been taking place at the Radisson Blu Hotel in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from May 27 to May 28 follows GCHACOF51 which was held at Entebbe, Uganda in February and released the March to May seasonal forecast.

A statement released on Tuesday by the IGAD Climate Prediction Centre (ICPAC) which organises the GHACOF also reads in part: There is an increased likelihood of above normal rainfall over Djibouti and surrounding lowlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea, most parts of Sudan, parts of south western Ethiopia, western Kenya and the Lake Victoria region of Uganda and Tanzania. The remaining regions of the north and equatorial-west are transition zones where the three categories (above, normal, below) are predicted equally likely, while the June to September period is a dry season for large parts of the south, east and far north of the GHA.

 The forecast also indicates a delay in the start of the rains by 1-3 weeks over the northern Rift Valley, the western equatorial sector, the coastal regions of Kenya and northern Somalia, and in Sudan. There is also indication of a likelihood of early cessation over eastern Ethiopia, northern Uganda, and the cluster bordering Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya. These areas are also likely to experience long dry spells during the season.

On the other hand, temperature forecast indicates increased likelihood of warmer than normal surface temperatures over much of the northern, eastern and south eastern GHA as well as a region over north western South Sudan, while cooler to near normal temperatures are indicated across central parts of GHA. The highlands of the equatorial sector are expected to experience cool and cloudy conditions during June to September 2019 period.

The national meteorological and hydrological agency of each country of GHA will now downscale this climate outlook and come out with the seasonal forecast for their respective countries for the June to September season.

Find the full statement from GHACOF52  here:  http://www.icpac.net/wp-content/uploads/GHACOF52_statement.pdf

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