UNMA forecasts average rainfall for most of Uganda for the June to August season

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By Luganda David, AFMC/NECJOGHA

Kampala, Uganda:The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) on Friday released a climate forecast for the June-July-August (JJA) season forecasting average rainfall for most parts of Uganda.

The ceremony was held at Esella Country Hotel and presided over by Isabirye Paul the UNMA Director Networks and Observations.

Isabirye said that UNMA had convened this downscaling workshop to look at the performance of previous forecast and get some reasons as to why it performed that way, and conclude with discussion on how the next season will perform and give advisories which will make a lot of meaning to the users of this information.

The downscaling of the forecast by UNMA follows the 52nd Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHACOF52) held in Addis Ababa in Ethiopia, from 28th – 29th May 2019 where the national, regional and international climate scientists reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications on the seasonal rainfall over the Eastern Africa region.

The summary of the UNMA forecast is as below:

  • Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near normal (average) rainfall with a slight tendency to above normal (above average) over the Northern, some parts of Eastern region and parts of Lake Victoria.
  • The Western and parts of central Uganda are expected to experience near Normal (average) dry conditions punctuated with occasional light
  • The rest of the country likely to experience near normal (average)

UNMA farther went on to give a breakdown of the season for each region:

WESTERN

South Western (Kasese, Kabale, Kisoro, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema and Rubirizi) districts

  • The rains being observed over this region are expected to persist until mid-June when dry conditions are expected to set in until late-July. Thereafter, isolated outbreak of light showers punctuated by dry spells till end of season. Overall, there are high chances of near normal (average) with slight tendency to below normal (suppressed) rainfall over most parts of the region.

LAKE VICTORIA BASIN AND CENTRAL REGION

(Eastern parts of Central (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma) districts.

  • The current outbreak of showers and thunderstorms being experienced over this region is expected to continue till mid-June followed by intermittent rains punctuated by dry spells till mid-July. Thereafter, steady rains are expected to get established up to the end of the forecast period. Overall, there are high chances for near normal (average) rainfall with a slight tendency to above normal rainfall over most parts of this region.

LAKE VICTORIA BASIN AND CENTRAL REGION

Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana) districts

  • The region is experiencing occasional showers and thunderstorms, which are expected to continue up to mid-June. Thereafter, relatively dry conditions are expected to set in and persist up to end of July. Thereafter, isolated outbreaks of light showers punctuated by dry spells are expected to get established till the end of the season. Overall, near normal (average) rainfall during this season is expected to prevail over this region.

EASTERN REGION

South Eastern: (Kamuli, Iganga, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, and Butaleja) districts

  • The rains which are being experienced over this region are expected to continue up to mid- June when the dry conditions are expected to begin and prevail up to late June followed by light and episodic rains till end of July. Thereafter, occasional outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms are likely to prevail up to the end of the forecast period. Overall, there are high chances of near normal (average) rainfall conditions over this region.

EASTERN REGION

Eastern Central: (Pallisa, Budaka, Kibuku, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Bulambuli, Kapchorwa, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea, Kumi, Kaberamaido, Serere and Soroti) districts.

  • The steady rains being experienced over this region are expected to continue up to mid-June followed by a slight relaxation until the beginning of July when outbreak of showers and thunderstorm are expected to get established till the end of season. Overall, there are high chances of near normal (average) rainfall with a slight tendency to above normal.

EASTERN REGION

North Eastern:  (Amuria, Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Napak, Amudat, and Kaabong) districts

  • The region is experiencing occasional showers and thunderstorms punctuated with some dry spells which are expected to continue up to late-June/early July when a slight reduction in the rainfall is likely to be experienced until early August Thereafter isolated light showers are expected to get established till the end of the season. Overall, near normal (average) rainfall with a slight tendency to below normal is expected during the forecast period.

NORTHERN REGION

North Western (Moyo, Yumbe,  Adjumani, Arua,  Maracha, Zombo, Nebbi, Koboko) districts

  • The current outbreak of showers and thunderstorms being experienced over this region is expected to continue till end of June followed by slight relaxation up to mid-July. Thereafter, steady rains are expected to get established up to the end of the forecast period. Overall, there are high chances for near normal (average) rainfall with a slight tendency to above normal rainfall over most parts of this region.

NORTHERN REGION

Central Northern  : (Gulu, Apac, Pader,  Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo) districts

  • The outbreak of showers and thunderstorms that is currently being experienced over this region is expected to continue till end of June followed by slight relaxation up to mid-July. Thereafter, steady rains are expected to get established up to the end of the forecast period. Overall, there are high chances for near normal (average) rainfall with a slight tendency to above normal rainfall over most parts of this region.

UNMA will next week release advisories for the different sectors.

 

 

 

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