The IGAD Climate Predication and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has released a summary of the climate forecast for targeted at decision makers for the June to September 2019 season.

It gives advisories for the following sectors; agriculture and food security, livestock, water and energy, conflict early warning, disaster risk management and health among the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) countries.

In summarising the expected rainfall and temperature conditions, ICPAC says that there is an increased likelihood of drier than normal rainfall over much of Ethiopia, south-western Eritrea, South Sudan, parts of western Sudan as well as some region on the Sudan/Ethiopia border, northern and far western Uganda, western Rwanda as well as coastal areas of Kenya and Somalia.

“There is an increased likelihood of above normal rainfall over Djibouti and surrounding lowlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea, most parts of Sudan, parts of south-western Ethiopia, western Kenya and the Lake Victoria region of Uganda and Tanzania.,” the statement says.

The forecast also indicates a delay in the start of the rains by 1-3 weeks over the northern Rift Valley, the western equatorial sector, the coastal regions of Kenya and northern Somalia, and in Sudan.

There is also indication of a likelihood of early cessation over eastern Ethiopia, northern Uganda, and the cluster bordering Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya.

These areas are also likely to experience long dry spells during the season.

On the other hand, temperature forecast indicates increased likelihood of warmer than normal surface temperatures over much of the northern, eastern and south-eastern Greater Horn of Africa as well as a region over north-western South Sudan, while cooler to near normal temperatures are indicated across central parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.

The highlands of the equatorial sector are expected to experience cool and cloudy conditions during June to September 2019 period.

Read the full ICPAC statement:


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