Nairobi, Kenya – The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has predicted average or wetter than average conditions for most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) for August.

“The latest global model forecasts indicate high chances of average or wetter than average conditions in most parts of the region during August 2019. Accordingly, there is increased probabilities for wetter conditions over much of western Sudan, northern Ethiopia (Amhara State), Southwestern Ethiopia, Uganda and western Kenya. Drier than average conditions are expected over eastern Sudan,” a statement on ICPAC’s website says.

Probability-based rainfall forecast for August 2019. This product is an ensemble
forecast from 7 Global Climate Centres (ECMWF, UK Met Office, and 5 centers
participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, NMME) generated through
statistical downscaling for GHA. Data for NMME forecasts were downloaded from the
International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) Data Library. ECMWF and UK Met Office forecasts were obtained from the EU Copernicus Climate Data Store

It continues that furthermore, six out of seven global models predicted drier than average rainfall conditions over Eritrea and parts of northern Ethiopia. Warmer than average near surface temperatures are expected in most regions during the coming month.

ICPAC starts with a review of the June-July period where it says that except for eastern Tigrai in Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea that had slightly drier than average rainfall, much of the June-September (JJAS) rainfall benefiting regions experienced wetter conditions in June 2019. Few showers also produced wetter than average rainfall over northern and northeastern Somalia and parts of northern Sudan.

“The rainfall persisted during the first 10 days of July and produced wetter than average rainfall over eastern Ethiopia, Uganda, and western Sudan. However, drier than average rainfall was observed over central and eastern Sudan, southeastern South Sudan, eastern Eritrea-Ethiopia cluster, northern Uganda, and western Kenya. Drier than average rainfall conditions continued along equatorial East Africa,” it says.

The statement concludes by saying that ICPAC will provide regional updates on regular basis while the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will provide detailed national and sub-national updates.

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Probability-based rainfall forecast for Aug

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