KMD predicts enhanced rainfall in most parts of Kenya for the October to December season


By Luganda David,   NECJOGHA/AFMC

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has predicted most of Kenya is likely to experience enhanced rainfall for the October-November-December (OND) short rain season.

‘During OND 2019, it is expected that most parts of Kenya will experience enhanced (above average) rainfall that will be well distributed both in time and space. The “short rains OND season constitutes an important rainfall season in Kenya,” says the seasonal weather forecast for OND released by the KMD on Monday.

KMD says this will be driven by warmer than average sea surface Temperature (SSTs) over western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African Coastline), coupled with cooler than average SSTs over the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia).

“This constitutes a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that is favorable for good rainfall over much of East Africa,” says KMD.

The Director KMD, Miss Stella Aura says the OND 2019 rainfall is expected to be well distributed both in time and space during the onset month of October and the peak month of November

“Generally dry conditions are however likely to prevail over much of the country for most of December” Aura said.

The KMD forecast says that areas likely to receive above –normal (enhanced) rainfall include: Western counties, Nyanza counties, Counties in southern, Central and North Rift Valley, Counties in Central Kenya, Nairobi County, Counties in Eastern Region and some counties in North Western Kenya.

Areas likely to receive near-normal to above (slightly enhanced) rainfall include: North Eastern Counties, Counties in the coast region and some counties in southeastern Kenya.

The Season forecast indicate the onset and cessation dates below.

Potential Impacts of the OND 2019 rains

  • The expected rainfall may cause slippery roads in some parts of the country. This may result into conditions that may cause accidents.
  • Flash floods may cause transport challenges especially during rush hours and more join areas where the roads become impassable when it rains.
  • Enhanced rainfall is expected over most agricultural areas of the country.
  • Rainfall will be well distributed making it favorable for agricultural activities. Foliage and pasture conditions in the postural areas of Northeastern, Northwestern and southeastern Kenya area expected to improve significantly as a result of the expected good rainfall performance during the season. Kenyans are encouraged to take advantage of the expected good rainfall and plant trees in order to increase forest cover.
  • In western Kenya, lightning strikes may occur especially in counties like Kisii, Kisumu, Kakamega, Bungoma, (Mt Elgon areas) cases of flooding are also highly probable.
  • Poorly drained areas may cause pools of stagnant water which may become conducive for breeding of diseases causing diseases.
  • The surface water run-offs may register increased inflows into rivers Sondumiriu, Tan and Athi.

Download season forecast:

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