Detailed forecast for the Sept- Dec rainfall season for all regions of Uganda

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By Frank Lukwago, New Vision/NECJOGHA

Kampala, Uganda – Below is the detailed seasonal weather forecast for all parts of Uganda for the September to December (SOND) rain season released by the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) early this month.

Overall, there is an increased likelihood of above normal rainfall over most parts of Northern, Karamoja, Eastern, Lake Victoria Basin and South Western Uganda, and near normal rainfall in most parts of Western Central, mid-Western and parts of Northern Uganda.

Explanatory notes

  • Above Normal (above average): This is when the total rainfall during the season exceeds the usual rains (thirty year average rainfall) received in a place.
  • Normal (average): This is when the total rainfall during the season is the usual rains (thirty year average rainfall) received in a place.
  • Below Normal (below average): This is when the total rainfall during the season is less than the usual rains (thirty year average rainfall) received in a place.

LAKE VICTORIA BASIN AND CENTRAL REGION

Western parts of Central

(Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke Kiboga, Mubende, Kasanda, Sembabule, Lwengo, Lyantonde, Kyotera and Rakai districts.)

  • This region has been experiencing isolated outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms that are expected to continue up to early to mid-September when the onset of the seasonal rainfall is expected. The peak of seasonal rainfall is expected around October, and the cessation is expected around Late November to early December.
  • Overall, Near Normal (Near Average) rainfall conditions are expected to prevail over this region.

Eastern parts of Central

(Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma districts)

  • These districts are experiencing occasional outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms which are signifying the onset of seasonal rainfall till mid-September when the season gets established.
  • The seasonal rainfall is expected to reach the peak around mid / late October and the cessation is expected to occur around late November to mid-December.
  • There are high chances of Above Normal (Above Average) rains to prevail over most parts of this area.
  • Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin

(Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana) districts

  • This area has been experiencing isolated showers and thunderstorms, which are expected to continue till early to mid-September when the onset of seasonal rains are expected.
  • The peak rains are expected around mid-October and the cessation is expected around late November to early December.
  • Overall, Near Normal to Above Normal (Above Average) rainfall is expected to prevail over this region

The spatial seasonal rainfall forecast for SOND 2019 over Uganda is shown in figure below:

Source: UNMA

 

WESTERN REGION

South Western

(Kabale, Kisoro, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi, Rukiga and Kasese districts)

  • Following the dry conditions which were experienced during July to August the region is experiencing outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms over several places. However, the onset of steady rains is expected around early to mid-September. The peak of rains is expected around October.
  • The cessation of seasonal rains is expected around late November to Mid-December.
  • Overall, Near Normal (Near Average) to Above Normal (Above Average) rainfall is expected over this region.

Central Western

(Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima, Kikuube, Kakumiro, Bunyagabu and Kibaale districts)

  • This region is currently experiencing isolated showers and thunderstorms which are expected to persist up to around early to mid-September when the seasonal rains are expected to begin over most parts.
  • The rains are expected to reach peak levels around mid-October to late November. The cessation of the seasonal rainfall is expected around Mid-November to early December.
  • Overall there are high chances of Near Normal (Near Average) to Above Normal (Above Average) rains over most parts of this region.

EASTERN REGION

South Eastern

 (Kamuli, Iganga, Bugweri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, and Butaleja districts)

  • The rains which are being experienced in this area are expected to continue through early to mid-September when steady seasonal rainfall are expected to get established.
  • The peak of rains is expected around mid to late October, thereafter, a reduction in the rainfall is expected to set in and continue up to the end of the season around late November to mid-December.
  • Overall, Near Normal to Above Normal (Above Average) rainfall is expected over this area

Eastern Central

(Pallisa, Butebo, Budaka, Kibuku, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Bulambuli, Kapchorwa, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea, Kumi, Kaberamaido and Soroti districts)

  • Currently the region is experiencing light rains, expected to continue till early to mid-September when the onset of the seasonal rainfall expected.
  • The peak rainfall is expected around early to mid-October and cessation of the rainfall is expected around late November to mid-December.
  • Overall, there are high chances of Near Normal to Above Normal (Above Average) rains expected to prevail over this region.

North Eastern

(Amuria, Kapelebyong, Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Nabilatuk, Abim, Napak, Amudat, and Kaabong districts)

  • This region is currently experiencing occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms, and onset of seasonal rainfall is expected early September.
  • The peak rains are expected mid to end of October punctuated with dry spells and cessation is expected around late November to early-December.
  • There are high chances for Above Normal (Above Average) rainfall over this region. 

NORTHERN REGION

North Western

(Zombo, Nebbi, Pakwach Okolo, Arua, Koboko Terego, Maracha, Moyo, Yumbe, Adjumani districts)

  • This region is currently experiencing occasional showers and thunderstorms which are expected to continue till onset of the rain season expected early September.
  • The end of the seasonal rainfall is expected around late November to early December.
  • Overall, Near Normal (Average) to Above Normal (Above Average) rainfall is expected over this region.

Eastern Northern Part

(Lira, Kitgum, Agago, Otuke, Pader, Kole, Dokolo and Kaberamaido districts)

  • The current rains are expected to continue until early to mid-October when the peak rainfall is attained.
  • Thereafter, cessation of the seasonal rainfall is expected around late November to early December.
  • Overall there are high chances Near Normal to Above Normal (Above Average) rainfall over this region.

Central Northern parts

(Gulu, Apac, Kwania, Pader, Lamwo  Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo districts)

  • The rains being experienced over this region is expected to continue up to around late November, and thereafter, a reduction in the rainfall punctuated with dry conditions are expected to prevail up to cessation around late November to early December.
  • Overall, Above Normal (Above Average), rainfall is expected during this season over this region.

UNMA will continue to monitor the evolution of relevant weather systems particularly and issue appropriate updates and advisories to the users accordingly

 

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