UNMA predicts reduction of rainfall in Karamoja, L.Kyoga and L. Victoria basins

A bridge washed away by floods in the Teso subregion. Picture credit: Javier Omagor.

By David Luganda, AFMC/NECJOGHA

Kampala, Uganda – The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has predicted some reduction of rainfall activity in Karamoja sub region, areas within central Lake Kyoga basin and those flanking Lake Victoria to its west.

“In contrast, areas within mountain Elgon, those adjacent to Lake Albert, some areas in the northern parts of country including portions of West Nile subregion, parts of Teso and Busoga subregions are expected to experience some significant rainfall activity,” says a dekadal (10 day forecast) released by UNMA on October 3, 2019 for the period October 1-October 10th.

 For details refer to figure 1 below and disaggregation by regions in the country:

Source: UNMA
Temperature forecast

On the ten day forecast for temperature extremes (1 – 10 October, 2019) UNMA says that the highest maximum temperatures from 30 to 32 degrees centigrade (0C) are expected to occur in the northern part of the country particularly in the districts of West Nile sub region and those of Acholi sub region in the proximity of the former.

However, the lowest minimum temperatures of about 8 to 10 degrees centigrade are projected to occur and impact over the highest areas of the mountains of Rwenzori and Elgon. Overall, the potential areas for the lowest minimum temperatures of below 12 0C are in south western of the country. Refer to figures 3a and 3b below for further information.


On temperatures, UNMA goes on that considering the mean temperature forecast, the potential areas that are likely to record mean daily temperatures of 220C and above are in the districts of West Nile and Acholi sub regions. The contrasting feature is that Kaabong District and other areas in Karamoja sub region are expected to record lower mean temperatures of below 200C. Check for more details in figure 4 below:

Rainfall Performance during period 21st – 30th September, 2019

UNMA notes that:

  • Late September was characterised by significant rainfall activity across the entire country except the southern cattle corridor districts which had rainfall amounts between 7.6 and 37.2 mm.
  • The highest amount of rainfall of 159.9 mm was recorded at Kyembogo weather station in Kabarole District and 150.7 mm at Arapai rainfall station in Soroti District and 150.6mm at Arua weather station. Overall perfomance is shown in figure 5 below.

Temperature extremes during period 21st– 30th September, 2019

During this period the highest maximum temperatures recorded were 34.0 and 33.60C at Wadelai in Packwach District and Kasese weather stations respectively. Other weather stations that reported the highest of the maximum temperatures of above 300C were: Kiige in Kamuli District, Soroti, Tororo, Serere, Gulu and Masindi.

The extremes of the lowest minimum temperatures observed were 11.0 0C and 17.8 0C at Kabale and Kiige weather stations respectively.

Impacts on Agriculture

On the impacts on agriculture, UNMA says that hailstorms were a prominent feature of late September 2019 with devastating impacts on both annual and perennial crops. Negative impacts occurred in northern, western and eastern that affected districts of Alebtong, Mbarara, Ibanda, Rwampara and Namutumba. Waterlogging is expected to escalate in the low lying areas of Teso and northern part of the country as rainfall activity persists.


UNMA concludes by giving the following advisories;

  • The farming population of northern, eastern and north eastern is advised to construct drainage channels across and around their crop parcels for all those located in low lying areas to reduce water logging. Water logging is often associated with delayed cultivation, decay of crop roots and reduction in maturity period of crops.
  • Undertake tree planting to reduce damaging impact of hailstones as well as strong winds and since this is also a source of livelihood for the rural population as trees can be sold to obtain money
  • Monitor and report any emergence of crop pests, animal parasites and plant diseases to technical staff at sub county and district.
  • Farming communities in north eastern are advised to undertake harvesting of the cereals which have already reached maturity phase.
  • Farming population is advised to use mosquito nets to avoid catching up malaria

Related articles;

Heavy rains cause havoc in Western and Northern Uganda

Namutumba rain kills one, destroys hundreds of houses

Detailed forecast for the Sept- Dec rainfall season for all regions of Uganda

Government issues floods, landslides alert

Heavy rain ravages Teso sub region









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