No malaria outbreak predicted for Western Kenya highlands

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By Bernard Maranga, KBC/NECJOGHA

Nairobi, Kenya – The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) in conjunction with the country’s ministry of Health, the National Malaria Control program and the Kenya Medical Research Institute has predicted that there will be no malaria outbreak for parts of the western highland in the month of October and November.

“The model outputs for the malaria epidemic early detection system for the western highlands of Kenya indicate no risk of malaria outbreak in all the three areas in the month October and November. The weather observations indicate generally a slight increase in total maximum temperature amounts in the month of September 2019 in all the three areas,” says a statement signed by Stella Aura, the Director of KMD.

The statement starts with giving data for Kakamega and says observed climate data for September 2019 indicates a slight increase in maximum temperature from 27.1°C in August to 27.3°C in September 2019. “However, the maximum temperature anomaly in September 2019 was still positive (0.4°C above the mean of the month). The additive model percentage risk in September was 13.6%. Consequently, there is no risk of the malaria epidemic in Kakamega outbreak in the month October and November,” the statement concludes on the forecasted malaria risk for Kakamega.

As for Kisii, the statement says that the observed climate data for Kisii for September 2019 indicates a slight increase in maximum temperature from 25.3°C in August to 26.0°C in September 2019. Rainfall increased from 163.3 mm in August to 180.1 mm in September 2019.

“The model output risk is Nil. Hence there is no potential for malaria epidemic in Kisii in the month of October and November,” the statement emphatically says.

The statement ends with Nandi when it says that the maximum temperature in Nandi slightly increased from 23.5°C in August to 24.0°C in September 2019. This observation in September 2019 for Nandi was 0.7°C above the mean of the month. Rainfall decreased from 198.2mm in August to 190.9mm in September 2019.

“The September 2019 multiplicative model percentage risk for malaria is Nil. Hence, there is no risk of a malaria epidemic October and November,” the statement concludes.

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