By Andrew Kaggwa, NECJOGHA
Kampala, Uganda – The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has said that the current rains are likely to spill into January 2020 for most parts of the country.
In a statement released by UNMA early this month and signed by Deus Bemanya on behalf of the Executive Director UNMA says that among areas where the rains will continue to January are the Lake Victoria basin and central region districts.
“This region has been experiencing above normal rainfall since September 2019, which are currently reducing. The occasional outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over this region till the end of December 2019, with high chances of spilling over to first weeks of January 2020,” UNMA says.
This region includes the districts of Eastern Lake Victoria basin (Tororo, Busia, Bugiri, Mayuge, Iganga, Jinja and Namayingo); Central Lake Victoria basin (Buikwe, Kayunga, Mukono, Kampala, Entebbe, Wakiso, Mpigi, Buvuma and Kalangala); Western Lake Victoria basin (Rakai, Kalisizo, Masaka, Lwengo, Bukomansimbi, Kalungu, Sembabule and Lyantonde); Western parts of Central (Butambala, Gomba, Mityana, Mubende, Kiboga and Kyankwanzi) and Eastern parts of Central (Luweero, Nakaseke, Nakasongola)
Other areas where the rains are expected to spill into January are; South Western (Kabale, Kisoro, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi, Rukiga and Kasese) and Central Western (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima, Kikuube, Kakumiro, Bunyagabu and Kibaale) districts.
Others are South Eastern (Kamuli, Iganga, Bugweri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, and Butaleja) districts, and Eastern Central: (Pallisa, Butebo, Budaka, Kibuku, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Bulambuli, Kapchorwa, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea, Kumi, Kaberamaido and Soroti) districts.
However, for areas of North Eastern Uganda including the districts of Amuria, Kapelebyong, Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Nabilatuk, Abim, Napak, Amudat, and Kaabong, UNMA says rains are currently reducing into intermittent light rains. The current situation is expected to continue until mid to late December 2019.
It will be the same case for Northern Uganda districts of North Western (Zombo, Nebbi, Pakwach, Okolo, Arua, Koboko, Terego, Maracha, Moyo, Yumbe, Adjumani); Eastern Northern(Lira, Kitgum, Agago, Otuke, Pader, Kole, Dokolo and Kaberamaido) districts; and Central Northern Parts (Gulu, Apac, Kwania, Pader, Lamwo,Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo) districts.
But even for the areas of North Eastern and Northern Uganda, UNMA says they may still receive below normal rainfall into January 2020.
Causes of the rain
On the causes of the current rains at a time the country is expected to be having a dry spell, the UNMA says that the most significant phenomenon that has influenced the performance of seasonal rainfall since September 2019 is called the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
“The Indian Ocean Dipole refers to the difference in sea-surface temperatures in opposite parts of the Indian Ocean. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurs when western Indian Ocean becomes warmer and eastern part of Indian Ocean becomes colder, and then becomes negative IOD phase when the revise is true. When a positive IOD occurs, it aids higher evaporation and also creates a low pressure zone in western part of the ocean and hence allowing in reversal winds from the colder parts of Indian Ocean to transport moist air inwards over the continent near the equator, strengthening the ITCZ and leading to larger and more widespread storm clouds that result into wetter conditions across many East African countries,” the statement from the weatherman explains.
In Australia the positive IOD this month caused temperatures to rise an all time 60 year high of 40.9°C in North South Wells.