The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has released the summary for Decision Makers for the upcoming rainy season June, July , August and September 2021
According to #ICPAC a wetter than usual June to September season is expected over Sudan, South Sudan, most of Ethiopia, and Uganda indicating good prospects for pasture and crop production. The season is expected to start early in western #Ethiopia, southern and western #Sudan, southern #Eritrea, northern South Sudan, and #Uganda, and late in eastern Ethiopia, northern Eritrea, and north-eastern Sudan.
Tanzania is normally dry during June to September, no major agricultural activities. Only irrigated land have crops during this season
In Uganda, risk of flooding over the western parts of the country to continue in the coming season. Currently, there is a challenge of getting land to relocate communities affected by floods. Mt. Ruwenzori area is expected to experience landslides. The country is expected to have enhanced agricultural production.
ICPAC advises the Office of the Prime Minister to intensify early warning to reach communities in affected areas, sensitization and dissemination of early warning information, early action to be taken to relocate people by the government to save lives and to review contingency plan and ensure it is in place.
In Rwanda the agriculture and Food Security sector is warned of post-harvest losses likely for season B crops. Floods and waterlogging incidents that might negatively affect season C crops .
According to the summary for Decision Makers at (#GHACOF58) Rwanda is advised to conduct effective post-harvest strategies, avail post-harvest equipment, rehabilitate some warehouses for Season B crops, distribute seeds and fertilizers on time, in readiness for season C season
Burundi is expected to receive wetter than normal season and in the health sector the population is at risk of outbreaks of Malaria acute watery Diarrhoea and Cholera. However, ICPAC advises the Ministry of health in Burundi to sensitization of the community to seek treatment on time and Bed nets utilization, case management and ITNs distribution to the target population.
In Sudan the Disaster Risk Management sector should expect Riverine floods along the Blue Nile and the White Nile are expected. This could damage public utilities and houses, disrupting the lives and livelihoods of communities. Urban floods for Darfur, Kasala, and Khartoum, among others
High temperature over the northern part, will have less impact as there are less to no population in such places.
South Sudan is also expected to experience floods over Jonglei and Upper Nile states. This could lead to disease outbreaks and displacement of people. Risk of conflict among farmers and pastoralist over central and eastern equatorial where farming takes place due to completion for resources. There might be issues of access in flood-affected areas and this needs prepositioning food and non-food items to optimal locations in advance.
According to ICPAC the Somalia Agriculture and Food Security sector is expected to also experience water stress over most parts of the country. Decreased crop production due to water stress. Limited damage of land area by Desert Locusts. Drought conditions over regions expected to be dry. Possibility of floods / flash floods in the North.
Enhanced rainfall especially in the western parts of Kenya to benefit forests and planted trees growth and
warmer than usual temperatures in the eastern parts of Kenya likely to: Reduce the forage and water for wildlife and likely to cause human-wildlife conflicts around protected areas; Speed up the drying of vegetation and increase the wildfires.
In Ethiopia good crop prospects due to conducive conditions for planting and sowing. Likelihood of a reduction in pests. The early onset is likely to affect the land preparation time. Likelihood of floods and waterlogging incidents in flood prone areas (Afar, eastern Amhara, SNNP). A desert locust outbreak is likely due to the good vegetation caused by rainfall. Moist conditions are suitable for weed infestation. The intermittent moist condition might be favorable for pest and disease outbreaks over moisture stress areas.
Djibouti the communities are expected to have enhanced water storage due to the forecasted above-average precipitation. Possibility of secured water for the use of pastoralists. Enhanced groundwater recharge.
Download ICPAC latest Summary for Decision Makers with impacts and advisories for the following sectors:
- Disaster risk management
- Agriculture and food security
- Water and Energy
- Conflict early warning
- Environment and Forestry