Risk of significant impact to both crops and rangelands is high in Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia
Locations with Reported Swarms June – July 9, 2021
Currently the desert locust swarms have been reported in 3 zones ofEthiopia (Oromia, Wag Himra and Siti) and 3 regions in Somalia (Awdal, Togdheer and Wogooyi Galbeed) and 2 regions of Djibouti (Ali Sabieh and Dikhil).
Hoppers have been reported mostly in north-western regions of Somalia showing breeding and reproduction activities and a risk of increasing swarm numbers.
Multiple adult locusts have been reported in 6 states of Sudan. According to Locust control updates in Sudan, desert Locust survey operations conducted were in the River Nile State during 7-14 July. Limited control operations continued at the border areas closer to the Northern State against mature/immature groups and hopper bands/groups of different stages.
OutlookThe risk of significant impact to both crops and rangelands is high in Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia due to the swarms recorded at the critical time of planting of main season cereals crops.Ethiopia’s crops for the Meher season which is at planting stage is at risk due to possibility of desert locust increase owing to high rainfall forecasted in July and August months.Control operations for locust is likely to be affected in Tigray and Afar due to on-going conflict in Tigray. This has the potential of increasing locust numbers due to control limitation.
Areas of Highest Risk July to Mid – August 2021
Highest risk areas for desert locust swarm invasion and adult locust development based on forecasted climate conditions and existing vegetation conditions are outlined below:
esert locusts movement projection July to Mid-August 2021
Forecasted climatic and ecological conditions
Conditions that favour swarms migration in search of areas to lay eggs and moist sandy soils are suitable in the north of the region.
The heavy rainfall forecasted increase the likelihood of having abundant vegetation in those areas already having swarms, adult locust, bands and hoppers reported. July rainfall forecast by ICPAC show a likely heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10 to 5% on record) from 100 mm to more than 200 mm expected in northern and eastern Ethiopia, most of Djibouti and Eritrea; south-western, southern, and eastern Sudan; and north-eastern South Sudan.
Ecological conditions(particularly the availability of green vegetation) continue to be suitable in parts of the northern sub-region due the current above average rainfall. This may continue to August.
Wind direction and speeds – which greatly determine swarm movement – are forecasted to be south-westerly which is likely to favour north-east and north-west locust movement for the mature swarms. Northern Ethiopia and Eritrea have wind direction forecasted to favour north locust swarm movement to Eritrea, eastern Sudan and across the Red Sea to Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
Intermittent multi-directional winds may favour swarms to move in varying directions during the projection period.
ReferencesData on locust locations obtained from FAO Locust Hub, downloaded 14 July 2021 Forecast Data, ICPAC July 1-month MODIS NDVI USGS (United States Geological Survey) MODIS fapar GMES & Africa eStations and EUC-Joint Research Centre Sudan Locust Control Bulletin Locust Control, firstname.lastname@example.org
This product is possible thanks to the support of the following project. GMES and Africa