Experts predict enhanced rainfall in August

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By David Luganda – AFMC/NECJOGHA

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) has today released the August forecast and June – July – August seasonal update 2021 predicting wetter than usual conditions expected over most of the northern parts of the region

According to ICPAC forecast, wetter than usual conditions are expected over most of the northern parts of the region, Uganda and western Kenya during August and through to October 2021.

Wetter than usual conditions are expected over western Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan.

“In contrast, For the northern parts of the East Africa, indicates positive prospects for the main farming season and pasture generation, whilst alerting for flood risk. Eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, southern and eastern Ethiopia are expected to be drier than usual from August to October 2021,’’says August Forecast and Seasonal update 2021 released by ICPAC on July 18, 2021.

Key Message

  • Wetter than usual conditions areexpected over western Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan.
  • Usual conditions are expected over few areas in north-eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and coastal Kenya.
  • Dry conditions are expected in the southern part of the region including most of Kenya, Tanzania, most of Somalia’s southeastern and  parts Ethiopia.

Temperature Forecast for August

On the August forecast for temperature, ICPAC says, that the warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of Tanzania, Kenya, eastern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, southern and north-eastern Somalia, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti, north-western South Sudan, and northern Sudan.

Usual conditions are expected over western Uganda, much of South Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central and north-western Somalia, northern Eritrea, and much of Sudan.

However, usual conditions are expected over western Uganda, much of South Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central and north-western Somalia, northern Eritrea, and much of Sudan.

Seasonal Rainfall Forecast August – October 2021

  • Wetter than usual conditions are expected over Sudan, most of Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Eritrea, Djibouti, and parts of northern Somalia, Uganda, western Kenya, north-western Tanzania, Burundi, and Rwanda.
  • Usual conditions are expected over areas in north-western South Sudan and central Somalia.
  • Drier than usual conditions are expected over northern and coastal Tanzania, the larger eastern Kenya, southern areas of Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia.

Seasonal Temperature Forecast August – October

  • Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of the region with the highest probabilities over the eastern parts.
  • Usual temperature conditions are expected over few areas in western Tanzania, Burundi, and central and northern South Sudan.

ICPAC is part of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Eastern Africa. Its mission is to foster, through a whole set of programs, sub-regional and national capacity for climate information, prediction products and services, early warning, and related applications as a contribution.

ICPAC provides regional updates on regular basis while National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) provide detailed national and sub-national updates .

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