Headline: Moderate rainfall is expected in southern Tanzania and Burundi; most areas north of the equator are expected to remain dry. Temperatures are expected to be largely warmer than average in most parts of the region.
Total Rainfall
- Moderate rainfall between 50 – 100 mm is expected in southern Tanzania with a few areas expected to receive up to 200mm rainfall.
- Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected in central and northern Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, western Uganda, and a few areas along the Greater Horn of Africa’s coastal strip.
- Dry conditions are expected in Sudan, much of South Sudan, most parts of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, and eastern Uganda.
Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 litre of water per square meter.
Rainfall Anomalies
- Negative rainfall anomalies (depressed rainfall) are expected in most parts of Tanzania.
- Positive rainfall anomalies (enhanced rainfall) are expected in isolated areas of southern Tanzania and south-western South Sudan.
Temperature Forecast 11 – 18 January 2022
Mean Temperature
- Moderate temperatures between 20 – 32 ℃ are expected in southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya; much of central and southern Somalia, Djibouti, coastal and western Eritrea, and southern and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- Relatively cold conditions with temperatures less than 20℃ are expected over northern Sudan, parts of central Ethiopia and Eritrea, western regions of Rwanda and Burundi; central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and a few areas in Tanzania and south-western Uganda.
Temperature Anomalies
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected in most areas of the region except parts of eastern Kenya and central Somalia where average temperatures are forecasted.
