By David Luganda -NECJOGHA

Tropical Cyclone Emnati forecast to hit Madagascar on Tuesday at Category 3/4 strength 4th storm in a month (Ana 22.1, Batsirai 5.2, Dumako 15.2). It is dangerous and a very serious threat to the landfall area, says regional cyclone centre according to Meteo France

Tropical Cyclone Emnati forecast

Emnati is expected to impact Madagascar tomorrow and Wednesday with heavy rain and strong winds, which may cause flooding and landslides, as well as power and water outages. is a good resource for the storm’s progress says U.S. Embassy in Madagascar and Comoros

According to the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS), Meteo Madagascar, Meteo France La Reunion and the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management Madagascar (BNGRC) forecasted on 20-21 February, Tropical Cyclone EMNATI passed approximately 370 km north of La Réunion and is currently moving south-west, towards central Madagascar.

On 21 February at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located 490 km east of Toamasina City (central-eastern Madagascar) with maximum sustained winds of 190 km/h.

The Interdepartmental Crisis Management Operational Centre (COGIC) reports 25,800 families affected by water disruptions and 7,000 others without power supply in La Réunion.

EMNATI is expected to continue moving south-west and it will make landfall in an area between the cities of Vatomandry and Farafangana (central-southern Madagascar) on the morning of 22 February, with maximum sustained winds up to 180 km/h, as reported by Meteo Madagascar. Later on, 22 February, it will cross southern Madagascar.

On 21-22 February, heavy rain and strong winds are forecast across most parts of central and southern Madagascar (under yellow warnings for cyclones) and La Réunion.

Furthermore, following the passage of DUMAKO over central-northern Madagascar on 15 February, 14 people have died, more than 4,300 were displaced and almost 9,560 affected. 

Update on Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI (ECHO Daily Flash of 11 February 2022)

After the passage of Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI over central and southern Madagascar, the number of fatalities reached 94 people, while 30,819 others are still displaced in 117 evacuation centres as reported by the Office of Risks and Disasters (BNGRC).

In addition, more than 116,000 people have been affected, at least 8,200 houses destroyed, and more than 2,700 damaged.

The Copernicus Emergency Mapping Service was activated on 5 February in rapid mapping mode (EMSR564), and 18 maps have been produced so far.

On 11-12 February, moderate to heavy rain with thunderstorms is forecast over south-eastern and most parts of eastern Madagascar.


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