Rainfall Forecast 22 February – 01 March 2022

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Heavy rainfall in southern and northern Tanzania and more than usual rainfall expected in Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, parts of central Ethiopia, southern South Sudan, and southwestern Kenya. Dry conditions in Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan. Warmer than average temperatures expected in equatorial and eastern regions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

Total rainfall 

  • Moderate rainfall (50-100mm) expected in most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, and few places over south-western Kenya and central Ethiopia. A few regions in southern Tanzania are expected to receive over 200mm.
  • Light rainfall (less than 30 mm) expected in southern South Sudan, Uganda, coastal and north-western Kenya, northern Somalia, and parts of coastal regions of Eritrea and Sudan.
  • Dry conditions expected in Sudan, central to northern South Sudan, northern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, central Somalia, and north-eastern Kenya.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 litre of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies 

  • More than usual rainfall expected over eastern and northern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, south-western Kenya, Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, and central to south-western Ethiopia.
  • Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of south-western Tanzania.

Exceptional Rainfall 

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10-5%) expected over parts of Tanzania, especially the northern (Arusha, Manyara, and Dodoma) and southern (Mtwara and Lindi) regions, and south-western Kenya (Narok and Kajiado).

Temperature Forecast 22 February – o1 March 2022
Mean Temperature

  • Moderate temperatures (between 20 – 32 ℃) expected in southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, Djibouti, most parts of Eritrea, Somalia, and Tanzania.
  • Relatively cold conditions (less than 20℃) expected in northern Sudan, parts of central Ethiopia, western Kenya, Burundi, and western Rwanda.

Temperature Anomalies

  • Warmer than normal temperatures expected in the majority of regions in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, eastern Sudan, and South Sudan.
  • Colder than normal temperatures expected over central to northern Sudan, parts of western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, most parts of Tanzania, and other isolated areas in the region.

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