Heavy rain forecast for September and October

Andrew SK Kaggwa, NECJOGHA

The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) forecasted enhanced (heavy) rainfall in September and October for some regions of the country.

“There is a high likelihood of near normal (average) to below normal (appressed) rainfall over most parts of Uganda as much as September and October are expected to experience near normal (average) to above normal (enhanced­) rainfall,” says the September to December (SOND) UNMA rainfall outlook.

According to the UNMA outlook areas expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall include the south western highlands in the districts of Kabale, Kisoro,Rukungiri,  Kanungu, Rukiga, Rubanda, Bushenyi, Rubirizi, Mitooma, Buhweju, Sheema and Rwampara.

Other areas expected to receive heavy rainfall is the Rwenzori subregion in the districts of Kasese, Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole and Bunyangabu.

Another area to receive near normal (average) to above normal (enhanced­) rainfall are the districts of Pallisa, Butebo, Budaka, Kibuku Bukedea, Kumi, Kalaki. Aljamiado, Serere and Soroti.

The Mount Elgon districts of Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Bulambuli, Namisindwa, Kapchorwa, Kween and Bukwo are also among those UNMA has forecast to receive near normal (average) to above normal (enhanced­) rainfall.

Districts in the North Eastern (Amuria, Kapelebyong, Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Nabilatuk, Abim, Napak, Amudata, Karenga and Napak; West Nile districts of Zombo, Nebbi, Pakwach, Madi-Okollo, Arua,Koboko, Terego, Maracha, Moyo, Yumbe, Obongi and Ajumani are also forecast to receive near normal (average) to above normal (enhanced­) rainfall.

Other districts of Northern Uganda are also forecast to receive near normal (average) to above normal (enhanced­) rainfall.

However, districts in the Lake Victoria Basin and Central region (Nakasongola, Luweero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke,Kiboga, Mubende, Kassanda, Sembabule, Lwengo, Lyantonde and Rakai); Eastern parts of Central (Mukono, Buiklwe, Kayunga and Buvuma districts); Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Kyotera, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba and Mityana districts are forecast to receive near normal (average) to below normal (auppressed) rainfall.

Meanwhile, districts in the Eastern Lake Victoria basin (Jinja, Bugiri, Busia, Mayuge, Namayingo and Toror are to receive near normal (average) rainfall.

Flood and landslide warnings

UNMA concludes its outlook by giving advisories to different sectors. Among these are flood warnings for areas like Elgon, Kigezi and Rwenzori Highlands which are already receiving heavy rains. Floods and landslides have already caused catastrophic consequences including loss of life and destruction of property in the Elgon and Rwenzori regions.

Uganda National Meteorological Authority released a Ten-day rainfall forecast (11th– 20th September 2022) and advisories

Potential impacts of Dekadal and advisories of rainfall forecast to the population


• Waterlogging has a potential to occur in low-lying areas of northern and eastern due to ongoing rainfall
activity. Contamination of water sources is also possible in most areas currently experiencing
considerable rainfall activity as a lot of surface runoff is being generated.
• The rains are expected to lead to more improvement in foliage and pasture for livestock in the entire
cattle corridor.
Advisories:
• The farming communities in West Nile, Eastern, Central, and Northern are advised to construct
drainage channels around and across their parcels to reduce water logging.
• Local Authorities should continue opening up clogged drainage systems in order to avoid any risks
that may arise from potential flash floods.
• Pruning of tree crops, mulching and planting of cover crops should continue to conserve soil moisture.
• Monitor and report any emergence of crop pests, animal parasites and plant diseases to technical staff at
subcounty and district.
• Maximum care and proper management of waste and domestic pit latrines should be observed and
promoted in order to prevent the spread of diseases like cholera, dysentery and typhoid. Drinking water
should be boiled for safety of life.
• Communities are encouraged to start putting in place facilities for rain water harvesting and storage for
future use. Those living in the proximity of the flood plains, riverbanks and wetland areas should vacate
as the rains intensify.
• They are also advised to avoid sheltering under trees whenever it is raining as a safety precaution
against lightning strikes that are often associated with thunderstorms.
• Relevant authorities are encouraged to de-silt water storage facilities such as reservoirs, valley
dams/tank.

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